Posted: May 4th, 2009 | Author: Wayne Weddington | Filed under: Opinion | Tags: market volatility, Strategy, Trading | 
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I had excellent open-field instincts when playing football. The term was to “juke” the defense with the head fake. I also had speed (4.49 40-yard dash) but it was the open field head fakes that opened the way.
Similarly, in basketball, the quick crossover dribble can leave the opponent’s body tragically conflicted, not knowing in which direction to defend. The nickname for the crossover dribble, another type of head fake, is the ”ankle breaker” because the defender’s simultaneous movement in opposite directions is likened to breaking his ankles.
The market has rallied magnificently in the last several weeks. Since its March 9 low of 676.83 the SP500 has surged impressively to 907.24, yielding a 34% return in less than two months.
Is it real or is it a head fake?
While there are glimmers of hope for the economy the stock market has gotten ahead of itself in my opinion. Structural problems in the economy do not revert so quickly. Every trader would like to be the one who times the market recovery, thus it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Every slight upward trend gains rapid momentum as no one wants to be the fool who misses the rally — least of all those professional managers hanging on to their clients by a thin thread. No manager wants to explain why their fund performed less than the market.
Moreover, the potential loss on a short sale position is unlimited: short sellers must constantly adjust their positions, and they are occasionally forced to close them out, resulting in huge market up-days…. which in turn feeds the notion that a recovery rally is upon us…. and so on, and so on. The market continues to advance in a pseudo-bullish feedback loop.
I too have had to capitulate occasionally. I have participated in approximately 25% of the up-trend, attributable mostly to those days where I just gave up, reversed my short equity market positions (globally), closed my eyes and went long.
But do not become complacent. This rally may be one of the cruelest ankle breakers of all.
– Wayne Weddington
Posted: February 10th, 2009 | Author: Wayne Weddington | Filed under: Opinion | Tags: market meltdown, market volatility, Strategy, Volatility | Email This Post
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Most of the financial news outlets are posing the question: keep stocks or sell?
The opportunities transcend the binary choice of liquidating your portfolio or simply holding on for dear life. No doubt about it, the next twelve to eighteen months are going to be volatile. I think the general trend will be weakness but there will be flashes to the upside as well. A few months ago the Dow had a +9.0% day which was huge. I was impressed, only to find out that it was merely the sixth largest in history. The other five times occurred in the period 1929 – 1933, in the wake of the Great Depression.** So expect big down days and big up days occasionally. Volatility.
In Do-it-Yourself Hedge Funds I discuss opportunity thinking. In other words it is a way to take today’s news and turn it into actionable market opportunities. It is not a secret sauce but provides a starting point for your strategy objectives and implementation.
There are infinite possibilities that could yield desired results for the current year, but they will all likely derive from high volatility, and declining fundamentals, both economic and company-specific. For example, if you have a portfolio of blue chip stocks, selling volatility premiums against it is not a bad idea. The VIX has been hovering between 40 and 80 which allows the average investor to sell “volatility premiums” to the market. Yes, it could limit the upside, but if you look at the equity markets since October 2008, they have been trading a fairly tight range. Selling premia is a way to capture that vol as cash until there is a breakout either way.
You should also think of pairs trades, especially for individual securities versus their peers individually or the sector at large. For example one thing I noticed, going into the fourth quarter of last year, is that McDonald’s (MCD) and Walmart (WMT) performed relatively well for then year-to-date, despite the prevailing predictions of gloom and doom. Part of the reason is that these companies, while categorized as Consumer Discretionary companies, really trade like Consumer Staples in tough times. When dollars are tight, people go to McDonald’s and Walmart to stretch their dollars. Sad that MCD behaves as a Consumer Staples company. But true.
Rather than take a naked buy on these companies (even they are laying off and experiencing declining performance), a relative-value trade would have provided significantly more return and arguably less risk. A “pairs trade” of buying MCD and WMT while shorting the broad retail sector (such as XRT, the S&P Retail Sector ETF) generated a relatively stable return (>40%) in 4Q 2008. That may seem like 20/20 hindsight but, believe me, there were many hedge strategists in that trade and others that reduced full market exposure while taking advantage of relative performance. The narrative for this trade was derived from simple daily news.
I said in an earlier post that these markets require extraordinary measures. Yes, it would seem right now that the only thing better than money is cash. But also keep an eye out for the opportunities that manifest themselves by very virtue of the toxic mess into which we have gotten.
-Wayne Weddington
** I recalled these market stats from memory.. they may be approximate.